by As we enter the final stretch of the 18-week regular season, the race for the league’s most prestigious individual honor has narrowed down to a thrilling photo finish. Checking the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025, it is clear that the narrative has shifted from a crowded field of superstars to a two-man duel between a seasoned veteran and a sensational sophomore. With Week 18 just around the corner, every snap, touchdown, and turnover now carries the weight of a potential trophy.
The Current Favorites: Stafford vs. Maye
Currently, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford sits as the betting favorite, with most sportsbooks listing him between -195 and -230. Stafford is enjoying a career-best season at age 37, leading the NFL with 40 touchdown passes and over 4,100 passing yards. According to the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025, Stafford’s “lifetime achievement” narrative combined with his league-high passer rating of 112.1 makes him the man to beat. If the Rams can secure a high seed in the NFC, it’s likely Stafford will walk away with his first career MVP award.
However, hot on his heels is New England Patriots breakout star Drake Maye. After a monstrous Week 17 performance where he threw five touchdowns against the Jets, Maye’s NFL MVP Odds Today 2025 have shortened significantly to +180. Maye has led the Patriots to an AFC East title and has been the most efficient quarterback in the league over the last month. Voters often love a “rising star” story, and Maye’s ability to turn New England into a Super Bowl contender in just his second season is making this race much closer than anyone expected.
The Top Contenders & Betting Board
| Player | Team | Latest Odds | Key Stat |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | -195 | 40 Passing TDs (1st) |
| Drake Maye | NE | +180 | 111.9 Passer Rating |
| Josh Allen | BUF | +2500 | Reigning 2024 MVP |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | +6000 | 11-5 Team Record |
| Myles Garrett | CLE | +15000 | 22 Sacks (DPOY Lock) |
Value Bets: Is There a Longshot Left?
While the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025 suggest a two-horse race, some bettors are still looking at Josh Allen (+2500) as a potential value play. As the reigning MVP, Allen has the “superstar” equity to steal votes if both Stafford and Maye stumble in their season finales. Though his turnover numbers have been slightly higher this year, his dual-threat capability remains unmatched. If you are looking for a wild card, Allen is the only player outside the top two who realistically fits the historical “statistical dominance” profile required to win.
Another name that has surfaced in recent discussions is Cleveland’s Myles Garrett. While a defensive player hasn’t won the award since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, Garrett’s chase for the single-season sack record (currently at 22) has kept his name in the peripheral NFL MVP Odds Today 2025. However, with the Browns likely missing the playoffs, Garrett remains a much safer bet for Defensive Player of the Year than for the overall MVP.
PFF Grades and Analytics Perspective
Advanced analytics often tell a different story than the betting markets, and Pro Football Focus (PFF) currently favors Drake Maye in terms of overall grade. When evaluating the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025, it’s important to note that Maye leads the league in PFF’s “Big Time Throw” rate. While Stafford has the volume stats, Maye has been more consistent on a play-by-play basis, which could influence the more analytically-minded voters on the 50-person panel.
Final Prediction: Who Takes the Trophy?
Predicting the winner based on the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025 comes down to the final week of play. If Matthew Stafford leads the Rams to a victory over the Cardinals and maintains his lead in passing touchdowns, the narrative of a veteran finally reaching the mountaintop will be too strong to ignore. He has the “counting stats” that traditional voters crave, and his leadership has transformed a young Rams roster into a title favorite.
However, if Maye puts up another four-touchdown performance against the Dolphins to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, we could see a historic upset. For those following the NFL MVP Odds Today 2025, the best move might be to wait for the final injury reports before placing a bet. As it stands, Stafford is the safe choice, but Maye represents the highest ceiling for those looking for a late-season payout.
